The title of this diary comes from a 1967 song by Pete Seeger (1919-2014) that was popular among the anti-Vietnam War protest movement of the 1960’s. It was deemed by many as symbolic of the US policy of escalation of the Vietnam War. The song lyrics describe a patrol of US military wading a river who go deeper and deeper into the water, until disaster ensues for all. It was inspired by an actual incident that occurred in Louisiana in 1956.
I thought it an appropriate metaphor for where we find ourselves, as progressives, on the cusp of an election in November that may lead to a second Trump Presidency.
As we begin the march to the November 2024 presidential elections, there is a lot of concern on the progressive side over whether voters will turn out for Biden-Harris. Often these discussions feature Biden-Harris positions and actions on the Israel-Palestine (IP) issue. Some I/P protestors and groups aligned with them suggest that, due to unhappiness with Biden, they may urge people not to vote.
This diary is not to argue the merits of the I/P debate. Only to point out the absolute certainty that, if Trump wins in 2024, we will be waist deep in the biggest muddy you can imagine. Depressing Biden turnout (due to I/P or other issues) risks tremendous and lasting consequences for progressive issues.
It may even threaten the basic institutions of the United States. In Trump’s first term, many feel he cut deep into the muscle tissue of democracy. In a second term, Trump may cut into the nervous system.
Since 1968 comes up so often as a model for the current I/P protests, let’s talk about the actual 1968 election: its outcome, enduring consequences and any lessons for us now.
The year 1968 began with the North Vietnamese/Viet Cong “Tet Offensive” in Vietnam, which shook confidence in US government statements about the progress of the Vietnam War. Ultimately, Tet, alongside the NH primary results (see below), helped feed into the decision of the Democratic incumbent, Lyndon Baines Johnson (also known as LBJ) to announce on March 31 he would not seek re-election.
Then, on April 4, civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr. (MLK) was assassinated, leading to a further eruption of protests across the country led by enraged and saddened African American leaders and communities. Unrest over Vietnam (a war being fought by a largely conscript US military that was suffering weekly casualties far in excess of later wars in the Middle East) merged with civil rights protests, a trend that had been accelerated by statements of MLK before he was slain linking the social justice and anti-war causes.
Mourning for MLK was still ongoing when, on June 6, US Senator and former Attorney General Robert Kennedy (RFK, the former President’s brother) was assassinated. Even before RFK’s death, an opponent to LBJ over the Vietnam War had emerged, in the form of Eugene McCarthy, a US Senator from Minnesota.
Aided by strong student get-out-the-vote drives, on March 12, at the first in the nation New Hampshire party primary, McCarthy won 42 percent of the primary vote, to Johnson's 49 percent, a showing against an incumbent president that many feel was the last straw to push LBJ to announce he would not run for reelection. Many believe RFK jumped into the race to head off McCarthy. [Note — at the time primaries did not decide nominees. Most states didn’t even hold them. Humphrey became the eventual nominee without entering a single primary]
The Democratic National Convention, held in Chicago from August 26-29, was a perfect storm, as it was wracked by tremendous protests merging not just outrage over the assassinations, the Vietnam War and social justice issues, but a real breach of trust in government that hasn’t ever healed. The US Secret Service would not even let LBJ attend the Convention, advising they could not guarantee his safety. Hubert H. Humphrey (also known as HHH) was nominated, but to many it seemed a poisoned chalice. The Democratic Party had been bleeding voters in the south ever since the Civil Rights Acts were passed (under LBJ, in a unique collaboration with the protest campaigns of MLK and legal strategies of the NAACP). Added now was a charge that the Democrats had lost control even of their own convention. In fact, the party was now seriously divided over Vietnam.
The GOP had already nominated Richard Nixon to carry its banner into the November 1968 election. Nixon was a long-time cold warrior who had served as VP under Eisenhower and had re-emerged into politics after losing the 1960 Presidential election to JFK. Nixon pounced on the unrest to cast himself as the candidate of “law and order.” He was careful not to pitch himself as a pro-Vietnam War or pro-segregation candidate but promised a “peace with honor” on Vietnam and positioned himself as a right-wing alternative for those who would otherwise support open segregationist presidential candidate George Wallace (running as a third party).
There is no question LBJ — and now HHH — carried baggage on Vietnam. There is also no question that under LBJ real achievements were made not just on Civil Rights, but on a range of domestic programs under the banner of “The Great Society”, pitched as the next stage of FDR’s New Deal. HHH now carried the positive banner of these domestic policies as well.
Many on the left were aware of the dilemma of whether or not to vote for HHH. They despised the Democratic Party policies on Vietnam. Some — not all — felt the Great Society achievements and Civil Rights Acts were a cup half-empty, not full. Most were also well-aware that Nixon would likely be worse. In the end, while some on the left held their noses and voted HHH, when the results came in it was clear HHH no longer had the broad coalition that had supported LBJ in 1964. In fact, millions of voters who supported liberal policies in 1964 did not vote Democratic in 1968.
The election, held on November 5, was still close. Nixon won the popular vote with a plurality of 512,000 votes (about one percentage point) and the electoral college was Nixon's with 32 states and 301 electoral votes compared to Humphrey's 13 states and 191 electoral votes. Wallace won five states and 46 electoral votes, all in the former Confederacy.
The majority of HHH support in the south came from newly enfranchised black voters. But “Tricky Dick” Nixon had shown himself adept in positioning — the infamous “Southern Strategy”— and the formerly Democratic “Solid South” was gone. Where LBJ won 59 percent of the white vote in 1964 against Goldwater, four years later that dropped to 38 percent for HHH. By 2016, when Hillary ran against Trump, she still got about the same percentage of the white vote as HHH.
1968 became known as a “Realignment Election.” From 1932 to 1964, the Democratic Party won seven out of nine presidential elections. From 1968 until 2004, Republicans won seven out of ten presidential elections. Consistent Democratic majorities, especially in the House, survived a bit longer, as ghosts of what was left of the LBJ and FDR coalitions.
Those seven GOP Presidencies had significant and enduring consequences. Not only did rollbacks begin (and continue to the present day) of New Deal and Great Society liberal programs, but right-wingers moved to appoint hundreds of federal judges.
In subsequent years, many people on the left looked back with regret on not supporting HHH against Nixon. In my own family, mainly Democrats but also some who were leftist protestors, we had folks who spoiled their ballots, some voting for “Dick Gregory” or “Mickey Mouse.”
And Vietnam? The top issue driving the protestors? The winning candidate, President Nixon, expanded the war to Cambodia and Laos. Nixon increased bombing of North Vietnam. About a third of US casualties in the war occurred after Nixon’s victory. Millions more Vietnamese died.
Fast forward to 2024.
You can (and should) have fair and open debate on whether or not Joe Biden has acted appropriately on I/P (or other issues). That is democracy. It is also within someone’s right to not participate or vote.
But consider the consequences of that 1968 Nixon-Humphrey vote. And the real outcomes that can follow from staying away from the polls or casting away a vote on a minor candidate.
In 2024, for all its faults, the Democratic Party is still the best alternative to those wanting social justice and peace. To those wanting to protect women’s reproductive rights. To defend the right of LBGT+ to be who they are. To advance economic justice for disadvantaged communities and access to affordable health care for all. To address climate change. To support Ukraine’s right to exist in peace. And yes, to push for a two-state solution that would ensure security and prosperity for both Israelis and Palestinians.
There are those who may hate the Democratic Party as much as the GOP. They may think that, just as “there was no difference” between HHH and Nixon in 1968, “there is no difference” between Biden and Trump in 2024. There may also be folks who believe Biden merits defeat solely or largely due to their disagreement with his positions on I/P issues.
Respect their right to express such views. But don’t join them in not voting for Biden. Even if you think Biden does not deserve your vote, vote Biden to stop Trump.
This is a consequential election. In his first term, Trump packed the Supreme Court with judges that overturned Roe v Wade. He sought to institute a Muslim ban and has vowed to try to do so again. Trump will ensure the defeat of Ukraine. Trump will be ten times worse on I/P. Trump is obsessed with vengeance and has vowed to be a dictator.
If Trump wins, we know the dark swirling waters threatening our democracy are going to get deeper and more dangerous. We know we will increase our chance of sinking into the mire.
If we still choose, despite knowing all that, to “push on,” just to have the satisfaction of dealing Biden the same fate we dealt Humphrey, we will indeed be “Waist Deep in the Big Muddy.”
And have none but ourselves to blame.